According to Hilmi Hacaloglu from Voice of America, even the polling company who forecast the closest results in the November of 2015 parliamentary election, A&G, has found the AKP’s vote share to be only 47.2%.
On the other hand, the polling company has not recorded a fall in the HDP’s vote share since it’s 2.5% drop in the October election. The company that got closest to HDP’s vote share in the last election, Konsensus, has announced that HDP’s vote share today is 11.9%.
Konsensus: 51.2% of voters will vote ”yes” but results can change anytime.
The president of Konsensus, Murat Sari, claimed that the reason for polls to be off from the real results in the October 2016 elections was the telephone polling.
Sari has announced that they have been working in 200 neighborhoods and have been interviewing over 2000 people face to face. He added that in their last polls the “yes” vote had 51.2% of the votes while the “no” vote had only 48.8% of the vote. The poll has a 2.1% error margin. It is still possible for the “no” vote to win. Sari believes that such close results show that that politicians need to agree between each and support a middle ground such as a semi-presidential system. According to Sari, any result with less than 55% of the vote will lead to controversy in both camps.
Sonar: 51.5% of voter will vote “no”
Sonar research’s president, Hakan Bayrakci, has been insisting on a “no” victory. Bayrakci who has answered America’s voice’s question has claimed that the “no’ vote will win 51.5% of the votes. He also added that he doesn’t believe that the votes of the Turks living abroad will have a big impact on the results overall as the Turkish voters abroad constitute only 3% of the overall votes.
GENAR: The “yes” vote is on the way to victory but we will announce results after the votes.
GENAR, whose old president was an adviser to prime minister Binali Yildirim, has announced that the “yes” camp is heading to victory.
GENAR’s president, Ihsan Aktas, has declared that they found the “yes” vote in front of the “no” vote since the beginning but that they didn’t want to announce the exact results in order to not affect voters’ decisions.
ANAR: The votes of Turks abroad can strengthen the “yes” camp
ANAR’s president, Ibrahim Uslu, who before had told America’s voice that the referendum polls showed a really close result, has announced the results of their polls done between the 5th and the 10 of April. The poll has a 1.51% error margin.
ANAR found that the “yes” vote has 52% of the vote share, while the “no” vote has 48% of the vote share. The company added that with the votes of Turks abroad the “yes” vote can grow even stronger
AKAM: The result will be “no.” If not, we will shut down our firm.
AKAM’s president, Kemal Özkiraz, has declared live Halk TV that he would shut down his firm if the “no” vote does not win the referendum. He added that if there is high participation in the referendum the “no” vote will win with a landslide.
A&G and KONDA have announced that they have not decided to announce the results of their polls yet.
Translated by Denizalp Goktas