In only 2017, it was reported by Turkey’s State Agency AA that Turkish Lira lost about 10% of its value against foreign currencies. Many of AKP media organizations and those economists linked to the Turkish government tend to explain the reason for this sharp drop in various conspiracy theories.
Akşam’s front page story:
Deutsche Bank who previously caused the economic crisis of the 18th of February, played a major role in the economic crisis of 2001 and who speculated on a 5.8 billion asset during the Gezi event is in action once more. The goal is to hit the value of the Turkish lira. The German intelligence and Deutsche Bank are forcing Turkish firms which loaned money in dollar and euro to pay their debts in the span of a month.
It has become apparent that the German intelligence agency and Deutcshe bank have been plotting the drop in the Turkish Lira’s value. Per the diagnosis of the Turkish Central Bank from nearly 26 890 Turkish firms, only 1100 hold their debts in their hands. Firms who have their debts denominated in foreign currencies are currently followed closely by the central bank for risks. However, as the number of firms having their debts denominated in foreign currency increased to 27 000, the central bank is getting ready to ask firms that have their debts denominated in foreign currencies to declare their debts. According to these new regulations might be legislated.
German banks are on the move
After the precaution the central bank took has become clear German banks started taking action. Turkish firms who heavily trade with Germany loan serious amounts of money in Euros. While the biggest amount of trade takes place with China ($1.884 millions), followed by Germany ($1.722 millions), Russia and Italy respectively.
The FETÖ discomfort
Furthermore, banks whose assets have been confiscated by the state in the context of the FETO prosecutions have also been pressured by German banks to pay their debts. In Istanbul, directors of 3 firms whose control have been taken by the state, were invited by Deutsche bank FETO members. As assets taken away by the state were determined as collaterals in the past, German banks are pressuring the firms to pay their debts back. Due to the action of the German other banks have also started to act.
The Currency Value effect
All foreign banks are pressuring firms to pay debts that are due to 3 months from now in the span of a month. Foreign banks believe that foreign currencies will increase more in the close future and are thus pressuring firms to pay their foreign currency denominated debts as soon as possible. Per the October 2016 data of the Turkish Central Bank non-financial firms have a total debt denominated in foreign currency that amounts to $212.6 billion. According to the same data liabilities have increased of $1 Billion and assets of $639 million.
No increase in CDS.
The head of Ankara’s industry association (ASO), Nurettin Ozdebir, has stated that the decrease in the value of the Turkish Lira is caused by speculations on that Market. The CDSs which are an indicator of whether firms can pay their debts or not did not increase at all. There is no sign of problem on the stock market which shows that the claims on the Turkish economy are entirely speculative.
Always the same game
The peak of attacks towards the Turkish economy was during the Gezi events on the 7th of January. On that same day an exchange of a share worth TL5.8 Billion between Citibank and Deutsche Bank had resulted in a TL187 million profit. Yeni Şafak had brought this to the attention of the public with the headline “the dirty bargain” after which deutsche bank had bought the shares of the most valuable firms of the stock market from Citibank.
Deutsche Bank, had used such a manipulation in 2001 and 2008 too. In August 2001 Deutsche bank had also made speculations about the debts of firms which had caused the Turkish value to lose its value too. Yeni Şafak had once again showed the intentions of deutsche Bank in 2008. The bank had also said in 2009 that Turkey might need $90Billion but thanks to the information given by Yeni Şafak no one took this information seriously.
The loss of the value of the TL
Mevlut Tatliyer, a professor at Istanbul Medipol university has said that it is hard to explain the loss of the value of the TL economically and that the cause is mostly political. Tatliyer believed that opposed to their counterparts Turkish banks have good foundations and are doing really well.
The TL is not that useless
Tatliyer thinks that these are parts of the operations to make Turkey kneel in front of the Western powers. He claimed that just because the TL is 15% less valuable the economy wouldn’t get affected. There was no economic crisis 200 when the TL was really valuable and there won’t be one when the TL is less valuable. Foreign countries are just trying to stop turkey from being a stable country. (Yeni Şafak)
Ceviren: Denizalp Goktas